Thursday, September 08, 2016
By Alexander Roepers
|| Alexander Roepers|
Investment styles tend to move in multiyear cycles. We believe U.S. equity markets recently passed an important inflection point, heralding a rotation back to value investing. This rotation started as a result of stabilizing macro conditions and because many value stocks had become too cheap to ignore, in both absolute and relative terms.
Seven-plus years of zero-interest-rate policy by the Federal Reserve have resulted in a search for yield that has inflated valuations of many financial assets to record levels. After mid-2014, U.S. equity markets experienced an extreme divergence as the collapse in commodity prices and exceptional U.S. dollar strength stoked fears of an industrial recession.
As a result, many investors reduced their exposure to value stocks in favor of perceived safe-haven assets, such as passive large-cap exchange-traded funds (ETFs), megacap consumer staples and growth stocks. This market dynamic also caused many investors to crowd into momentum stocks, especially the so-called FANG companies (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), inflating the valuation premium of momentum over value stocks to levels not seen for 35 years — other than the one we saw from mid-1998 to early 2000, during the tech bubble.
In 1998 the equity markets experienced a sharp bifurcation because of macroeconomic disruptions and fears of systemic risk resulting from the Asian financial crisis and the collapse of hedge fund firm Long-Term Capital Management. The ten largest technology stocks had gained an average of 140 percent by the end of 1998, driving the Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 up 40 percent and 29 percent, respectively, that year. For a period of 18 months, investors rotated away from value stocks and into growth and momentum names. However, once the tech bubble burst, in March 2000, investors changed course and began looking for value opportunities. What followed was a seven-year cycle in which value outperformed growth.
Similar to this historical period, investors initially responded to the global macroeconomic shocks of the past two years by rotating away from value and toward growth and momentum stocks. After a broad-based sell-off in January of this year, which drove valuations of small- and midcap stocks and many value stocks to near-historical lows, investors began to turn their attention to value stocks once again.
This return to value has been facilitated by stabilization of the two macro factors that initially triggered the massive market bifurcation: Commodities have begun to rebound from their oversold conditions, and the U.S. dollar has entered a trading range against other major currencies.
Evidence of this rotation to value can be seen in both U.S. and international equity markets today. Between the market inflection point in February 2016 and mid-August, the Russell 2000 Value Index outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 10 percentage points (30.9 percent versus 21.1 percent), while indexes in Australia, Brazil and Russia increased anywhere from 24 to 89 percent in U.S. dollar terms. Recently, the brief panic that followed the Brexit vote in late June, which in our view will have negligible impact on global economic growth, caused a flight to safety stocks and megacaps at the expense of small- and midcap value stocks. Despite this, the rotation back to value has already resumed.
Looking ahead, we see major market-cap-weighted indexes having a modest upward bias because of decent corporate earnings growth, earnings yields of 6 percent (read, a price-earnings ratio of 16) and dividends of 2 percent-plus, on average, in a zero-interest-rate environment. Because of this, these market-cap-weighted indexes are likely to be range-bound in the foreseeable future, as they are dominated by megacap companies with high valuation multiples. Index-tracking funds and ETFs that have benefited from the passive-investing trend are likely to tread water. Conversely, many small- and midcap value stocks have become attractively valued and are poised to outperform as they draw in capital that is leaving the overvalued growth space in search of better risk–reward opportunities. Self-help corporate actions, activism (both constructive and otherwise) and takeovers also will help drive outperformance in the small- and midcap value space.
Given the seven-year cycle of value outperforming growth from 2000 to 2006 and the recent ten-year phase of growth outperforming value stocks, does that mean we are now on track for an extended period of value outperformance? We believe the answer is yes. Markets have now entered a new multiyear cycle, in which active value investing will outperform passive index strategies, with an emphasis on fundamental investing that will help narrow the glaring valuation discrepancies in favor of value stocks.
Alexander Roepers is CIO at Atlantic Investment Management, a New York–based global value-investing firm he founded in 1988.
Monday, July 18, 2016
By Dean Curnutt
|| Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors|
Despite the historical negative correlation between stock and bond prices, it is time for investors to seriously consider the impact of the conventional risk on/risk off model on their portfolios.
Since the end of the global financial crisis of 2008, the correlation between stock and bond prices has been consistently negative, as the corresponding rally in U.S. Treasuries on days when the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has fallen has provided a meaningful shock absorber for diversified portfolios. In fact, since 2010 a 50-50 portfolio of stocks and bonds has produced twice the Sharpe ratio of one invested in stocks alone. Over this period the correlation of returns between the S&P 500 and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has been -55 percent. If stock and bond prices move inversely, do they not mostly net out, limiting the returns of an equity/bond portfolio over the long run? While their movements are largely offsetting day to day, over a longer horizon both stocks and bonds have experienced dramatic returns since the financial crisis. On a total return basis, the S&P 500 is up 109 percent and the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF is up 85 percent since 2010.
Stock and bond prices have never expressed such different outlooks for growth dynamics. Work by Greenwich, Connecticut–based asset management firm AQR Capital Management points to the “joint richness” of stock and bond prices. There have certainly been periods in which stock prices were more richly valued. The S&P 500 carried a price-earnings multiple of 30 at the peak of the technology bubble in late 1999. But at that time the nominal ten-year Treasury yield was north of 6 percent with break-even inflation at merely 2 percent, leaving real yields at 4 percent. A forward P/E of 17 and a real yield on the ten-year at zero means that today’s environment consists of valuations that are concomitantly stretched for both stocks and bonds. In my conversations with pension funds, I’m asked consistently to help design hedges for risk parity strategies. There is a great deal of capital committed to strategies that rely on the continuation of a negative correlation between stock and bond prices.
This leads us back to the outlandishly strong risk-adjusted performance of a portfolio that is long both stocks and bonds. As we have seen consistently in markets, winning trades acquire an irresistible track record, providing compelling ammunition for advisers and consultants who lean heavily on back-tested results when making recommendations. Fearing a 2008 style meltdown, investors have been drawn to less risky portfolio constructions, especially when they can deliver similar returns.
The so-called taper tantrum of 2013, now celebrating its third anniversary, is a risk event worth constantly thinking about. The dislocation that beset markets was spawned by a sharp reversal in stock and bond correlations. During that time, instead of rallying on risk-off days, faltering bond prices became the impetus for stocks to fall. While the U.S. Federal Reserve quickly went into damage-control mode, the repricing of risk premia across asset classes was swift. Now, with stock prices just south of an all-time high, expectations of continued earnings growth and a very full market multiple, the Fed is expected to do almost nothing, not just this year but in 2017 as well.
In finance, we are taught that there is no free lunch. Realistically, however, market-pricing regimes that exist for lengthy periods of time are enablers of just this suspect notion. Specifically, the persistent and significant negative correlation between stock and bond prices has served as the most important diversifier post–financial crisis, with tremendous implications for how investors size portfolios. In fact, an entire industry of products has been built on the appeal of back-tests that illustrate how leverage can be utilized to achieve better risk-return outcomes for long stock/long bond portfolios. The impact of utilizing this leverage leans heavily on a continuation of these correlation dynamics. The volatility of a 50-50 portfolio shifts dramatically higher when the correlation moves higher.
The undoing of risk on/risk off could be an absolute disaster for markets. The threat here is especially prominent right now given the joint levitation of both asset classes, likely a central bank policy outcome, and the degree to which the realized diversification has spawned an entire industry of products built on an appealing back-test. Higher inflation, for the very reason investors and central banks cannot see it materialize, stands out as a factor that could sponsor substantial deterioration in both stock and bond prices.
Given the threat posed by the potential that stocks and bonds sell off in unison, investors should develop an understanding of the hedging strategies available to defend against just such an event.
Dean Curnutt is CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, an equity derivatives strategy and execution firm that specializes in translating proprietary market intelligence into actionable trade ideas for institutional clients. The New York–based firm is a registered broker-dealer with FINRA.
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
|| Oliver Marti, Columbus Circle Investors|
By Oliver Marti
Over my 25 years of equity research and investing, including the past 15 years managing a health care long-short strategy, I’ve witnessed many changes in what drives stock prices — including the influence of monetary policy decisions, the increased speed and amount of information (or misinformation) distribution and the significant decline in order size. But I am now observing a change that is more significant than any I’ve previously seen. The massive growth in exchange-traded funds is changing how stocks trade and are priced, bringing new challenges as well as opportunities for investors.
Numerous statistics suggest the number of U.S.-listed ETFs has increased from 100 in 2000 to more than 1,500 today, with assets under management growing from less than $100 billion to roughly $2 trillion over the same period. The Investment Company Institute, a mutual fund trade association, reports that since 2008, $410 billion has flowed out of mutual funds, while at the same time, $1 trillion has gone into ETFs. Based on the growth in ETFs, it is estimated that on average the percentage of U.S. trading volume coming from ETFs has gone from virtually nothing in 2000 to approximately 25 percent in 2016.
This growth is having a profound effect on how stocks are priced and has implications beyond the usual debate about passive versus active management. ETF growth is driving a de-emphasis on investing in individual stocks based on their merits and a move toward sector bets and factor model investing, grouping stocks of the same ilk in one basket. Many have heard the term smart beta, but the term I think best fits this fast-growing trend is fundamental insensitivity.
Investing in ETFs can allow investors, especially individual investors, to build diverse portfolios, get exposure to specific sectors, avoid company-specific risk, hedge and pay lower fees — all positive attributes. However, as ETF-based strategies have exploded in size, an unintended consequence has been an increase in periods of erratic price movements in stocks sharing similar characteristics. (I also believe the growth in quantitative funds may be having an equally large impact, but data in this area is harder to come by.)
Prices are increasingly affected by demand and supply for an asset class, style or sector, instead of being driven by individual business fundamentals. Investor demand to move in or out of certain sectors or factors can drive a particular asset, stock or sector meaningfully away from its intrinsic value, often extremely rapidly. This effect is elevated during periods of rising uncertainty and higher volatility, and the impact tends to be greatest on lower-liquidity and smaller market-cap names.
For fundamental investors, it is now more difficult to determine what is in fact discounted into a company’s valuation. How much of a stock’s move is fundamentally driven? How much is positioning? With the increase in ETFs, along with quant funds, it seems more and more that a significant portion of a company’s price movement is driven by investors simply getting long or short exposure to a trend, factor or sector that is in or out of favor. Stocks of the same ilk get grouped together with little differentiation between fundamentally stronger and weaker companies.
My team and I have seen the general phenomenon of ETF growth play out specifically in the health care sector. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis utilizing data from research firm EPFR Global shows assets in health care/biotechnology ETFs have greatly surpassed assets in health care/biotech mutual funds since 2013. In fact, the analysis suggests that today, of the total U.S. assets in health care/biotech, only a third is actively managed, with two thirds passively managed. What that means is that correlations rise, and over shorter periods of time, nonfundamental factors can drive stock performance, both long and short.
We believe these changing dynamics have had a significant impact on the stock prices of many companies in the health care industry since July 2015. Health care witnessed a sudden rotation out of favor, with biotechnology companies hit the hardest as evidenced by a first-quarter 2016 decline for the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index that was the worst on record.
While it is fair to conclude that there is increased uncertainty around health care policy and drug pricing, the uniform and rapid decline in stock prices across biotech seems to be a symptom of the changing ETF marketplace. Data provided by Credit Suisse’s Quant & Equity Trading Strategy team regarding trading in the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) suggests that this single ETF at times contributes an estimated 30 percent or more of the average daily volume in many of the stocks it holds. Other ETFs holding those same stocks drive that figure higher, demonstrating how ETF trading can have an outsize impact on volume and therefore on stock price movements.
An uncoupling of stocks from underlying value has and will at times make fundamental long-short investing more difficult during short-term periods, since correct assessments of stronger and weaker companies are less likely to be rewarded in near-term price movements. However, we still believe that companies ultimately will be priced on intrinsic value, and therefore the erratic pricing we are seeing is creating more situations where companies are materially under- or overvalued.
This increase in the number of significantly mispriced stocks should mean higher long-term returns for managers and investors who can identify these situations and have the patience to stay the course. In our sector, health care, we believe the market has overreacted to potential changes in health care policy, which is creating excellent investment opportunities.
Oliver Marti is Senior Managing Director at Columbus Circle Investors and manages the CCI Healthcare equity long-short team.