Got Macro?

February 12, 2010  

Robert Wiedemer and Cindy Spitzer, who predicted the economic crisis in their book, America's Bubble Economy, caution hedge funds to have a macro view.

By Robert Wiedemer and Cindy Spitzer Timing is always key to investment success, but there’s something even more essential: the accuracy of your macroeconomic view. Some of the biggest hits in hedge fund history were based on good macroeconomic analysis. For example, John Paulson and Jeff Greene used their macroeconomic view to cash in on the housing downturn. More recently, Julian Robertson, James Chanos, John Paulson, and David Einhorn are making bets based on their macroeconomic assessments. For many investors, there was a time when not having a macro view didn’t matter all that much, but since the financial crisis of 2008, investing without the correct macroeconomic analysis is worse than flying without instruments; it’s like flying without an engine. Asset managers who focus only on individual company analysis often miss golden opportunities, and worse, they are blindsided when a macroeconomic freight train hits all the companies in a sector....


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